**This is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to Buy or Sell E-mini or any other investment vehicle**
Entire history (and Current Read) is displayed here
For Momentum Meter History
December 15, 2017 17:00 EST
**Bottom indicators tend to warn of a "change in trend" in advance**
**Bottom oscillators often show a divergence before a real change in trend**
**Use Stop Loss to manage risk*
For background information on this indicator click here
A Suggested Trading Setup:
Sell E-mini when "Momentum Meter" reaches -30 after the last buy, Momentum Power Histo is negative, and price is below Purple ATR Line
Enter at the close of next hourly bar. This helps to avoid false signals
Stop Loss Mechanism:
-A Trend Line Brake
-ATR based SL (Period:168. Kv: 6.0)
-If Momentum Power Histo goes against signal
-2% of the Entry (Rarely hit)
Time Horizon:
Few to several hours
Targeted Audience:
-Short Term Traders experienced in trading E-mini
-Can be used to gauge short term momentum in US equities. For example a gap up on open is more likely to hold intraday, if Momentum Meter as at or above +30 before the open. Same apply to the downside side.
STATs*:
Maximum ES points move (Jan 2013 - Apr 2014) as Reported Live
(Point change is the maximum move on the side of the signal
when the indicator reached +/- 3 or +/-5 [or 30/50 in new format] first time after being on the opposite side)
After an initial signal:when the indicator reached +/- 3 or +/-5 [or 30/50 in new format] first time after being on the opposite side)
(Since 1-1-2011)
83% chance of capturing 10 ES points (Range 10-120) till the opposite signal
92% chance of capturing 5 ES points (Range 6-120) till the opposite signal
Most often the above occurs within 8-12 hours
If signal moves to +/- 50
Very High (> 95%) chance of capturing 10 ES points (Range 10-70) till the opposite signal.
Hypothetical Performance of Entering/Exiting ES on Zero line cross since 3/2007
(Last Updated August 10, 2015)
*past performance is no guarantee of the future.
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good morning - I noticed your real-time Momemtum Meter changed last night on your 8pm report to a -3 (from a -1 i think), and now its being reported at -5 on your 8am report.
ReplyDeletedo you have a log of the real-time Momemtum Meter for the last week or so showing dates/times and meter readings?
much thanks for all you share!
Bottom panel shows actual readings of the setup. Turning points are marked with red/green vertical lines(with date/time indicated.
DeleteRecently found your blog - good stuff. I trade ES, as well. In regard to the Momentum Meter - after your initial signal is triggered +3 and then a reading of +5 is posted - you have a high degree of certainty that 10 handles are in the cards. In the current scenario wherein we keep stacking hrly readings of +5, does that imply a possible additional 10 ES or is the probability much lower. In other words, using your meter alone - would you simply have a "runner" left at this juncture awaiting a sell signal, or would you have added back to you position with the new level 5 reading? 2nd question - is your stop roughly 33 handles (as in 2percent of 1690ish). Thank you for sharing this info - Bullethead
ReplyDeleteThanks for your interest in my work. Hope the information presented here will help you make better decisions.
ReplyDeleteInitial rise to +5 indicates a strong trend as is remaining at this elevated level. A gain of +10 points and exit is purely for illustration. If I were to trade ES, which I don't, I will put a trailing stop, once the setup has hit 10 points, to fetch additional gains.
I instituted 2% stop loss as a catastrophic insurance (when all else fails), practically the setup triggers exit long before this. The setup triggered stop loss only twice in 140 trades since Jan 2010.
Hi Harapa, do you mean with the last signal that you are 100% sure the ES is going 10 points higher (1693.50) the time of your signal? That means 1703 ES correct?
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing this usefull information...
Cashflowtrader
"...you are 100% sure".
DeleteI wish I can be this assertive. By 100% means that since 2010 in all instances whenever MM reached +/- 5 ES made a 10 point move afterward. So STATISTICALLY there is very high probability that it will repeat this behavior. But in STAT a 100% is NO GUARANTEE that it will happen. So use this information with a grain of salt and DON'T bet farm on this observation. GL2U
harapa you say enter after close of next hourly bar but the momentum meter is updated after the close and just before open so the only bar that applies is the first hour bar at 9est correct ?
ReplyDeleteThere are many ways to take advantage of this setup. "enter after close of next hourly bar" is chosen to provide STATs. Though I post updates at times indicated, it doesn't mean the trade is restricted to when I post the updates. For any one who wishes to use this setup for trading, I would think they will setup this indicator at their own and monitor it in real time (for this reason I have provided enough details to allow its replication).
ReplyDeleteinteresting your meter stayed at -3 after yesterdays large up day. any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteYeh, it is interesting. Currency markets showed no enthusiasm for this rally like many other measures (AD, Volatility, Momentum) that I follow to gauge the short term direction. I am long but with a tight stop loss.
ReplyDeleteI've been following your blog for a while now and appreciate your work, but that was a fail of the +5MM right?
ReplyDeleteYes, indeed.
DeleteAs most elements in the setup are traversing a narrow range, likelihood of "whipsaw" is high at the moment. This is an inherent limitation of all momentum type indicators.
On your maximum moves from Jan 2013 to present, are the dates on the left the first day that the +3/-3 or +5/-5 was signaled?
ReplyDeleteDate is the first day when +/-3 was signaled. +/- 5 first dates are not shown since these always occur after +/ -3.
ReplyDeleteSo are your results from green3 until red 3, then red 3 until green 3 or are you basing exits off of trendline breaks and stop loss triggers
ReplyDeleteResults show maximum point move in the direction of signal once system reached 3 or 5 first time. These are not based on +/- 3 boundary. The table is appended to indicate that a good move usually follows the signal. People trading ES are (should be) sophisticated enough to decide when to exit sooner than indicator reaching the threshold level;TL and ATR based SL are just few means to accomplish this.
DeleteHarapa, do you have a real time update from this tool?
ReplyDeleteI do keep track of this in real time. However, I post its posturing only before and after market close (and occasionally during the market hours). For anyone wishing to follow this hour by hour I recommend setting this up at their own. It is for this reason I have made this an open source setup.
Deletehttp://harapainvesting.blogspot.com/2013/03/momentum-blockbackgorund.html
Harapa,
ReplyDeleteI used to admire your work on Cobra's site, but I've not been there for a while and just chanced on your blog. Terrific work. Thank you so much for sharing it.
Could you answer a few questions:
1. You say that you don't trade ES. Could you explain your reaons?
2. It's not quite clear to me how I could replicate your momentum model. Could you walk me through it?
3. If #2 is hard, or impossible, do you post trades on twitter in real time?
Again, fantastic work.
Thanks,
Alex
Thanks for your interest & admiration.
ReplyDelete#1. Not interested in trading ES.
#2. Setup is described here
http://harapainvesting.blogspot.com/2013/03/momentum-blockbackgorund.html
#3. I post readings of this setup here and on Twitter. How someone uses these is upto them.
Once again, many thanks for all your inventive ideas.
ReplyDeleteYou said above that the bottom panel gives real time readings of this strategy. I check your chart periodically, and none of the panels seems to change. Could you clarify how it is possible to get real time readings?
Unfortunately you are not right. Posted chart is as of the "time and date" indicated. If you don't believe, make a copy of the chart on different days and than compare. As "how to produce this setup " is given, users need to reproduce the setup at their own to see a streaming version. To my knowledge Blogger doesn't allow posting a live charts...only static.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply.
ReplyDeleteI've been observing the bottom indicator (Sentimeter) on this chart and it does, indeed, seem to give early signals. Do you think that it can be trusted as a "stand-alone" indicator? If not, how would you use it?
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Alex
It's "standalone utility" is under observation. How to use it?.. I leave that for the users to decide as (I reiterate) I don't trade ES/Futures.
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteDo you exclusively post readings of your momentum meter on twitter?
It is updated here once a day before (as indicated). A change in status is communicated via Twitter (when cash markets in US are open). No real time update is posted in after hours ( while I am asleep). The description of the setup is made public to facilitate following of this setup at the user end.
Delete