Disclaimer

This blog is for educational purposes only

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Monopoly


  **This is for informational purposes only and not a recommendation to Buy or Sell stocks or any other investment vehicles**
SP500 is very close to an all time high and many other indices at similar levels. “Is this going to be the top for the Bull Run that began in March 2009?" is a question on most investor's mind. This weekend, I spent a lot of time pondering on the above question. The fact that both my short term and long term models are in sell  mode tells me that the stock prices are not likely to move higher in the coming days.

While these models have helped me to stay on the right side of the market in the last few years, these don't have long enough history to study their behavior during the major market tops of the last 25 years a. This problem, however, is solved if I look at my Monopoly setup. This setup is a disaster protection plan for my portfolio. The setup avoided the crash of ’87, 2000-02 bear market, and major corrections in '1990, '1998, and 2011 (see charts below to appreciate the calls made by this setup).

Just like any time based indicator, Monopoly can be derived in short, medium or long term versions by simply adjusting the time period. Its medium term version, coupled with a slope function, seems to provide very timely signals. Note how the setup moved to sell side before all major turning points mentioned above. Also, in studying its behavior near the tops, I noted that the setup issues 2 sell signals near the market top, and it’s the second signal that coincides with the real market top.

Before I conclude, let me make this clear that Monopoly is an independent thinker, i.e. it is derived by an algo that is not represented in any other model shown on this site.

Currently Monopoly is in "Long SPY" Mode
If you like Monopoly or other models I have, please bookmark this page for future visits.
I update my models regularly; you don't want to miss if and when these issue a signal.
 
Current view (as of September 25, 2023)
1987 & 1990
`1998 & 2000
2007
                                                                        2018-2020

 
Performance of Monopoly Since 1990
(Last Update January 07, 2020)




a. All my models have at least one base element with 20+ years of profitable history as a standalone input. However, addition of new elements in each model, whenever these became available, has made these even more reliable than before.

4 comments:

  1. Just located your blog and I look forward to viewing in the future. Thanks for taking the time to do this and making it available for public viewing !!!!!

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    1. Welcome!
      I hope information here will help you to make wise investment decisions.
      Good Luck...

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  2. Hi Harapa, great blog and many thanks to share your ideas. Just a doubt you show a sell signal in 2015-08-11 anticipating a correction in next weeks but in your Monopoly Performance you dont show the same...so why?..many thanks for your feedback. PLease go on updating your trades..congratulate you

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    Replies
    1. It is. Note there are 2 exits/enteries in 2015

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