This blog is for educational purposes only

Predicting the Direction of SP500

 **This is for informational purposes only and 
NOT a recommendation to Buy or Sell any investment vehicle**

**Regular updates are not posted since all details to replicate  the setup are given**

**An Open Source Set UP**
**See details at the bottom of the page**

This set of indicators tends to indicate the future direction with a reasonable accuracy.
When all indicators are Green, market has an upward bias.
When all indicators are Red, market has a downward bias.
Currently these indicators are showing Neutral bias.

Bearish for SPY
Hourly Version: Internals, Volatility, and Momentum -Bearish
(Last Update: Close of NYSE on August 07, 2015)

Daily Version:  Internals, Volatility, and Momentum -Bullish
(Last Update: Close of NYSE on Jul 10, 2015)
Technical Details:
SPY Price
SP500 Volatility
NYSE Cumulative AD Issues
NYSE Cumulative AD Volume
NYSE New High Low Ratio
STOXX50 (European Index) Volatility
Hourly/Daily versions use same time intervals, however, hourly version can be monitored intraday

Plotted on MetaTrader 4
Oscillator/Indicator: 21 period Least-Squares Regression Line of 21 period William's %R


  1. Harapa,

    I am a subscriber and daily reader.

    You are truly remarkable.

    Thank you for sharing this accurate and timely alert, at a time when many on the blog-o-sphere yesterday were merely sheep doing the rah-rah thing.


  2. Harapa- Since you Favor an upside move in SPY, what is your projected upside target? Thx.

  3. I wish I know that. Almost all I do is built around trend and momentum. Both of these are lagging methods by design. However, by looking at shorter time frames one can substantially reduce the the lag. Barring a catastrophic event, I expect my intermediate term setups to call for an exit within 3-5% of a top or bottom of some significance. With this capability in hand I just follow the trend. At the moment the trend is having some hiccup.

    BTW, my "Short Term Trading setup" called for an exit on 8/3 when SPY was at 168.97. I now update this setup at the end of each trading day. My personal commitments don't allow me to post real time signals during the day. But this may change in the future.

    Thank you for your interest in my work and good luck to you.

  4. Hi Please can you tell me where I can get the intra-day version i.e. hourly? Thanks

    1. Also note above setup can be reproduced by any one following the technical details provided. If you plan to trade this set up I would suggest to adopt it so that not only you can monitor in the real time but also get the feel for it.

  5. First chart in the post is an hourly version. I only update these charts after the close of each trading day.

  6. Hi Harapa,

    I am a newbie to your work and it looks promising.

    On the daily do we have to wait for all indicators to turn red to make a trade or wait for your "Daily Version" to turn Bearish for trade? Is the "Daily Version" an early indicator?


    1. Both daily and hourly versions are based on same time interval thus expected to follow each other. However, in a fast moving market hourly version tends to signal a little earlier than the daily. For a signal, all except one indicator needs to agree. An exit long by this setup is not necessarily a signal to open short. In my experience most shorts do poorly as long as Volatility Derived Model is on the long side.

  7. Harapa,

    Will you be drawing a red line on the Daily per the Dec 10th close or do we have to wait for all of the arrows to turn red?

    1. I allow one non-conformer. By this rule the red line falls on Dec. 9th, 2013 close on daily version. However, note that hourly version has been out of the market since Dec 03, 2013.

  8. Harapa,

    I am guessing that it is safe to draw a green buy line on the Daily?


  9. Yes, especially if markets can stay up till the end of today. Good luck.

  10. Hi Harapa,

    Guessing it's safe to draw a red sell line even with one non conformer?

    Do you have a listing of your past buy-sell signal dates other than what is listed on the chart?

    1. -Yes, if signals remain in effect till the EOD today and/or price doesn't make a significant rebound. Note on hourly the trade was exited by the ATR based stop.
      -I appended a chart showing all trades for 2012 to help you ascertain the usefulness of this setup.

  11. Hi Harapa,

    I'm a newbie to the market. So let me say this first "Good Job" on your work.

    I understand that you update your site at the end of the day. If I want to follow or monitor this signal, how do I do this? What I software are using? How do I get these various super trend indicators? How do I even set this up?

    I have TDAmeritrade account. Don't think I have seen anything like this in their software.

    Can you point me to the right directions?


  12. I post updates before and after market hours on most days.
    Almost all charts are created using Meta Trader 4. MT4 is a freely available FREE professional grade application (http://www.metatrader4.com/) on the net and tens of FOREX brokers provided free demo accounts with streaming quotes for FOREX and equity futures. As this is very popular platform in FOREX community, literally hundreds of indicators and huge number of trading strategies build around these are available on the net (http://www.forexstrategiesresources.com/).
    For this setup, I have listed the inputs and indicator (http://www.forexmt4.com/mt_yahoo/LSwpr_in_Color.mq4) details at the bottom. Any platform capable of plotting the indicator should be good to replicate the setup. I have no knowledge if this can be replicated on TDAmeritrade.
    Good luck in your trading and thanks for visiting my blog.